Libs' implosion big news for the Greens?

As the Federal parliamentary Liberal party vigorously pursues their collective hari kiri, it is worth pondering the implications for the Australian Greens.

Firstly, there are by-elections coming up very soon for the former seats of Peter Costello (Higgins) and Bradfield (Brendan Nelson). These events that would normally dominate all political and commentary attention for weeks seem to have totally escaped the attention of the Liberals - and the majority of the nation's media hawks to boot.

The ALP isn't standing anyone is these seats because they are "safe Liberal". Well they might have been a week ago. But with the populations of both seats comprising solid majorities under 38yo, you have to wonder now. If the Liberals continue on the only likely course of action after this weekend - that of dumping Malcolm Turnbull and their support for the ALP's Emissions Trading Scheme - then it would be fair to assume a fair chunk of support will swing over the Greens candidates, including well-known economist Clive Hamilton in Higgins.

As with most by-elections, there are swags of also-rans among the candidates, so here's hoping the Greens have shored up possible preference flows from these people enough to get them into second, and possibly first, place. Could we be on the cusp of seeing the first Green in the House of Representatives? And what an irony that would be if it was on the back of the Liberal dinosaurs trying so hard to defeat a (small g) green initiative?



Then there is the ETS itself. If the Libs do change horses next week, it is virtually certain they will vote down the ETS, and it won't be seen again until perhaps mid next year - possibly as a double-dissolution trigger. Not that this would be a bad thing. The scheme is now so hopelessly compromised that it would actually be better for the environment (for the time being) if it does not get up in the currently proposed form. That will put it back in the hands of the Greens, the solid Nick Xenophon, and (trembles at the thought) Steven Fielding. There seems little likelihood that an ETS worth having would get past Fielding.

Unless Kevin Rudd calls an early election to force the issue to the fore (double or single).

Which brings us to the ACT. Clearly the Liberals' ACT Senator Gary Humphries is looking a little vulnerable - more so now than a week ago. Not to the ALP, but possibly to the Australian Greens, with additional support from ALP preferences. If the Greens go well in the two by-elections (and maybe another one in Malcolm Turnbull's seat if he spits the dummy?) and perhaps even win a seat, this could flow into increased attention and support in the ACT - a town of avid politics watchers.

There is a quirk of the system that has ACT Senators take up their post immediately after the election is called, rather than waiting until the following 1st July.

And this is where it all gets really interesting.

If the Greens managed to unseat Humphries in the Senate, the balance of power would change immediately to the Greens and Xenophon. Rudd and Penny Wong would face the possibility of getting their ETS through via negotiations with the Greens and Xenophon, completely bypassing the Liberals.

And there would then be a chance of achieving a very different ETS from what we have been facing this week. One worth having.

Now there's a scenario worth contemplating.