Interesting ACT election predictions over on the Canberra Causerie forum

The Canberra Causerie is a Canberra community discussion forum.

Member Phil Officer has posted an interesting precise of the possible outcomes from the next ACT election. And I think a little better considered than some of the predictions I've seen elsewhere. They usually just pass a summary judgement based on booth results last time and barely a passing consideration of who is actually standing this time - and what the performances have been like in the meantime.

I wasn't "dragged in" though! I joined the Greens after I decided to ease myself out of the Gungahlin Community Council. It was the Greens because they have the policies that I believe in. And during the past three years that they've had the balance of power in the ACT, the Greens have been doggedly pursuing the kinds of changes for the better that I've been campaigning for during my whole time with GCC. So the Greens were a natural fit for me.
Yes I think that I can bring in new votes for the Greens. I hope that a lot of people who've seen what I've managed to achieve for Gungahlin over the last almost six years will stop and think beyond their usual assumptions about what the Greens are about. If I can bring in those new first-time Greens voters, then I hope that it will indeed be enough to maintain the numbers for the Greens.

Of course what I'd really like is for many more people to question their more basic assumptions about the parties, and to walk away from the stale old parties in droves! Certainly they've seen and heard a different style of politics when tuning in to hear Meredith Hunter on the ABC 666 radio "political panels" - a voice of decency among the other party reps constantly sniping and bickering at each other.

But at this stage I think most people in the Greens would be happy to see us consolidate the result from the last election and put to bed the usual line that it was just a fluke.

As a former local government Councillor myself, I can say that the community in Molonglo has certainly got their money's worth from Shane Rattenbury and Caroline le Couteur - they've been the closest I've seen to grass roots councillors in the MLAs for Molonglo, attending more meetings than they've missed I think. And being totally across all the Gungahlin issues like none of the others.

Indeed in Gungahlin Community Council meetings, both Labor and Liberal MLAs have been most notable for their absence! Katy has been twice - both times as Chief Minister, and on short notice to her credit. Andrew Barr has not attended once since the last Meet The Candidates Meeting! Simon Corbell has been slated to appear twice, but stood the community up with just hours notice both times. Chris Bourke has been quite often - and he's from Ginninderra electorate. Mary Porter has been a total no show in Gungahlin - despite three suburbs being in her electorate from next election.

Among the Liberals, I can't recall Zed Seselja, Alistair Coe or Vicki Dunne attending since the Candidates night. Jeremy Hanson has been a few times.

It will be interesting to see how their predictions for Brindabella go. It's a fight to be sure. But from what I've seen, Amanda has been doing a strong job down there and I hope the Brindabella community will recognise this. She's certainly been rock solid on her support for light rail as a solution to Canberra's public transport woes - a solution that is as important for Tuggeranong and Woden people as it is for North Canberra and Gungahlin folk!

I wonder whether people there will be a bit put off by the implicit assumption that Zed can just move electorates and everyone will jump on board - especially seeing as how he's been very near invisible for months. And will the big support base for Val Jeffery eventuate, given that he's outed himself as really being behind the Liberals last time even though he was standing as an independent?

I guess we'll know in five months!